Friday, July 01, 2005

Solberg's analysis on the session that was

Full text here

First, and surprisingly, the NDP were actually the big losers this session. They thought they did everything right, but they're still stuck at 18% in the latest Ipsos poll. Amazingly the NDP Budget, and Jack's pink cowboy hat just didn't translate into support.

Maybe the best evidence for the fecklessness of the NDP is the recent disastrous turnout in their nomination meeting in Regina Qu'apelle. Think about it. Here's a former NDP riding, in a province with an NDP government, and a contested nomination with four people running. Yet only 200 people came out to vote. Even more pathetic is the fact that Lorne Nystrom was only able to win the thing on the third ballot. Cripes Lorne you've been an MP on and off for decades and you couldn't get a hundred people out to a nomination meeting? Seems Layton-mania has yet to sweep over southern Saskatchewan.

It's nice to hear that as, despite living in southern Saskatchewan, I hadn't heard how the nomination went (or that it was happening for that matter), that said, I'm not really sure that the lack of people turning up for a nomination meeting necessarily translates to a complete lack of support for the NDP, though it is primarily a support for the Tommy Douglas NDP around here, not Jack Layton, who from people whom I've spoken to are generally less then fans. As an example, my grandmother who as voted NDP every election since the fifties has recently changed her allegiance to the Conservatives (yes, the Conservatives), the reality of the country finally overcoming the illusion that was Tommy Douglas.

The Libs spent their spring proving Lord Acton right. Its all about power for them. They cut deals with Jack, Belinda, Chretien and his lawyers, the separatists and provincial premiers. They cut more deals than EBay, but that makes them look desperate and power hungry.

They did go up two points to 35% in the polls (which we don't EVER pay attention to). But shouldn't they be much higher? Some of my media friends told me that the Libs were the big winners on the budget bills and the gay marriage bill. Really? Why isn't it reflected in the polls? I think the Libs are at a ceiling, too.

There's likely a Liberal logo next to power-hungry in the dictionary, as for them looking desperate and power-hungry from the deals they cut...I really don't know how they played, to me they looked desperate and power-hungry, but I'm not exactly an unbiased observer, and even less a Liberal friendly one, so how am I to know how those same moves played to someone who is?

Also the deals with the seperatists critique is odd and doesn't really play all that well as it appeared that the Conservatives were collaborating with the Bloc themselves for much of the session, personally I'm not opposed to certain co-operation with other parties, whether they are seperatists or not, though the Liberal deal was of a completely different nature then the Conservatives co-operation with the Bloc was, the Liberals cut a deal with the Bloc to force an immediate vote while members of the Conservatives were unable to be in the House do to trifles like a funeral, cancer treatment and a sick wife, what a nice bunch those Liberals, what was it that they were using as an excuse as to why they couldn't have a quicker confidence vote after they lost the vote in May? Something about a Queen's visit and how some Members might be unavailable otherwise...

My own analysis of the session?

The NDP is pretty much where they started, the media loves them but voters don't. The Liberals are untrustworthy weasels but about one-third of Canadians are not quite willing to let go of them just yet for reasons that defy comprehension, and Stephen Harper is the most hated Party leader since Stockwell Day which makes his task as a leader very difficult as very little of what he does will receive positive press, and with the pervasive negativity towards the Conservatives it is really difficult to accurately gauge the pulse of the actual people of the nation.